tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:24 XNA → 20:36 DTW
    DL 4895 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 13m · 76% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 DTW → 23:41 LGA
    DL 2603 · Delta · 1h 51m · 74% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 17mXNA 17:24 to LGA 23:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.