tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Portland via New York: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:27 BNA → 22:09 JFK
    DL 4909 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 42m · 69% on time, 8.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:59 JFK → 00:52 PWM +1 day
    DL 5411 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 53m · 81% on time, 8.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (8.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (8.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 25mBNA 18:27 to PWM 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.