tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Austin via Nashville: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:50 JFK → 17:47 BNA
    DL 4909 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 57m · 74% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 BNA → 21:16 AUS
    DL 3945 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 31m · 75% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 29mJFK 15:50 to AUS 21:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.