tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Newark via Hebron: arrives on time 47%

  1. 14:55 RDU → 16:41 CVG
    DL 4911 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 46m · 80% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Hebron (CVG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:31 CVG → 19:33 EWR
    DL 5083 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 02m · 69% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 38mRDU 14:55 to EWR 19:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.