tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 32%

  1. 18:35 TVC → 19:14 MSP
    DL 4915 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 39m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 MSP → 23:27 DCA
    DL 2961 · Delta · 2h 26m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 51mTVC 18:35 to DCA 23:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.