tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Richmond via New York: arrives on time 71%

  1. 07:06 BNA → 10:40 JFK
    DL 4916 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 34m · 87% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:20 JFK → 16:19 RIC
    DL 5301 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 59m · 78% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 13mBNA 07:06 to RIC 16:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.