tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Detroit via Nashville: arrives on time 60%

  1. 07:44 JFK → 09:20 BNA
    DL 4919 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 36m · 83% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:06 BNA → 12:46 DTW
    DL 2682 · Delta · 1h 43m · 89% on time, 3.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.7% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip5h 05mJFK 07:44 to DTW 12:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.