tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:35 STL → 16:09 LGA
    DL 4922 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 38m · 74% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 LGA → 19:10 ORD
    DL 2503 · Delta · 3h 10m · 62% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 35mSTL 12:35 to ORD 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.