tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 55%

  1. 06:49 SDF → 08:00 MSP
    DL 4928 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 11m · 82% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 30m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:30 MSP → 13:09 MDW
    DL 4820 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 39m · 62% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 165 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 30m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 20mSDF 06:49 to MDW 13:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.