tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Diego via Minneapolis: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:20 JFK → 21:00 MSP
    DL 4933 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 40m · 70% on time, 9.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 MSP → 23:30 SAN
    DL 2146 · Delta · 3h 46m · 78% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (9.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 13mJFK 18:20 to SAN 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.