tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Bozeman via Minneapolis: arrives on time 52%

  1. 18:20 JFK → 21:00 MSP
    DL 4933 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 40m · 70% on time, 9.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:23 MSP → 23:52 BZN
    DL 2954 · Delta · 2h 35m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (9.4% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 38mJFK 18:20 to BZN 23:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.