tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Anchorage via Minneapolis: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:20 JFK → 21:00 MSP
    DL 4933 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 40m · 70% on time, 9.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:13 MSP → 00:59 ANC +1 day
    DL 411 · Delta · 5h 42m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (9.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip10h 35mJFK 18:20 to ANC 00:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.