tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Tampa via New York: arrives on time 48%

  1. 11:10 BHM → 14:45 LGA
    DL 4936 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 35m · 74% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:39 LGA → 18:54 TPA
    DL 2404 · Delta · 3h 15m · 74% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 44mBHM 11:10 to TPA 18:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.