tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Orlando via New York: arrives on time 39%

  1. 11:10 BHM → 14:45 LGA
    DL 4936 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 35m · 74% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 LGA → 18:52 MCO
    DL 2520 · Delta · 3h 14m · 62% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 39mBHM 11:10 to MCO 18:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.