tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Tampa via Detroit: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:26 SDF → 18:58 DTW
    DL 4947 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 65% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 DTW → 22:35 TPA
    DL 1355 · Delta · 2h 40m · 77% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 13mSDF 17:26 to TPA 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.