tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Houston via Detroit: arrives on time 57%

  1. 17:26 SDF → 18:58 DTW
    DL 4947 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 65% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 DTW → 22:24 IAH
    DL 1633 · Delta · 2h 59m · 81% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 58mSDF 17:26 to IAH 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.