tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:26 SDF → 18:58 DTW
    DL 4947 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 65% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DTW → 20:31 ORD
    DL 1665 · Delta · 1h 31m · 66% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 05mSDF 17:26 to ORD 20:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.