tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Detroit: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:26 SDF → 18:58 DTW
    DL 4947 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 32m · 65% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 45m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:43 DTW → 22:00 LAS
    DL 916 · Delta · 4h 17m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 60 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 45m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip7h 34mSDF 17:26 to LAS 22:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.