tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 65%

  1. 06:00 BHM → 09:29 LGA
    DL 4977 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 29m · 90% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 LGA → 12:00 BNA
    DL 5438 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 34m · 78% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 04mBHM 06:00 to BNA 12:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.