tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → San Diego via New York: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:15 IND → 19:39 JFK
    DL 4984 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 24m · 76% on time, 8.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 JFK → 23:39 SAN
    DL 685 · Delta · 6h 10m · 75% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (8.2% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip9h 24mIND 17:15 to SAN 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.