tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Raleigh/Durham via Hebron: arrives on time 77%

  1. 08:51 JFK → 11:08 CVG
    DL 4985 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 17m · 83% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 23m layover in Hebron (CVG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:31 CVG → 15:02 RDU
    DL 5400 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 31m · 83% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 98 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 23m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 11mJFK 08:51 to RDU 15:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.