tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Boston via Louisville: arrives on time 43%

  1. 09:00 MSP → 12:00 SDF
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 00m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Louisville (SDF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:49 SDF → 15:25 BOS
    DL 5615 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 36m · 79% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 25mMSP 09:00 to BOS 15:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.