tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Detroit via Minneapolis: arrives on time 75%

  1. 12:40 SDF → 13:48 MSP
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 27m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:15 MSP → 18:59 DTW
    DL 1476 · Delta · 1h 45m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 102 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 27m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 20mSDF 12:40 to DTW 18:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.