tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Minneapolis: arrives on time 49%

  1. 12:40 SDF → 13:48 MSP
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:54 MSP → 16:09 PHX
    DL 2284 · Delta · 3h 21m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 35mSDF 12:40 to PHX 16:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.