tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Baltimore via Minneapolis: arrives on time 34%

  1. 12:40 SDF → 13:48 MSP
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:41 MSP → 18:15 BWI
    DL 2565 · Delta · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 34mSDF 12:40 to BWI 18:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.