tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Houston via Minneapolis: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:40 SDF → 13:48 MSP
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 MSP → 17:39 IAH
    DL 2644 · Delta · 2h 54m · 78% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 59mSDF 12:40 to IAH 17:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.