tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:40 SDF → 13:48 MSP
    DL 4988 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:38 MSP → 18:09 DCA
    DL 2963 · Delta · 2h 31m · 77% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 29mSDF 12:40 to DCA 18:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.