tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:41 BHM → 20:54 DTW
    DL 4990 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 13m · 56% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 DTW → 23:41 LGA
    DL 2603 · Delta · 1h 51m · 74% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 00mBHM 17:41 to LGA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.