tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Baltimore via Detroit: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:41 BHM → 20:54 DTW
    DL 4990 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 13m · 56% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 DTW → 23:18 BWI
    DL 2715 · Delta · 1h 38m · 78% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 37mBHM 17:41 to BWI 23:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.