tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Dulles via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:53 RDU → 15:50 JFK
    DL 5009 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 68% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:40 JFK → 18:32 IAD
    DL 5076 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 51m · 62% on time, 12.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (12.7% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 38mRDU 13:53 to IAD 18:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.