tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Seattle via New York: arrives on time 44%

  1. 13:53 RDU → 15:50 JFK
    DL 5009 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 68% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 JFK → 20:19 SEA
    DL 740 · Delta · 6h 29m · 71% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip9h 26mRDU 13:53 to SEA 20:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.