tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Las Vegas via New York: arrives on time 55%

  1. 13:53 RDU → 15:50 JFK
    DL 5009 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 68% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 JFK → 19:49 LAS
    DL 806 · Delta · 5h 49m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip8h 56mRDU 13:53 to LAS 19:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.