tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Atlanta via Louisville: arrives on time 56%

  1. 14:20 MSP → 17:15 SDF
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 59m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Louisville (SDF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:34 SDF → 20:15 ATL
    DL 1126 · Delta · 1h 41m · 82% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 55mMSP 14:20 to ATL 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.