tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Philadelphia via Minneapolis: arrives on time 51%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 19:09 MSP
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 MSP → 23:56 PHL
    DL 2703 · Delta · 2h 32m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 02mSDF 17:55 to PHL 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.