tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 19:09 MSP
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 MSP → 23:43 LGA
    DL 2733 · Delta · 2h 44m · 77% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 48mSDF 17:55 to LGA 23:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.