tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Newark via Minneapolis: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 19:09 MSP
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 MSP → 23:59 EWR
    DL 2846 · Delta · 2h 44m · 73% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 04mSDF 17:55 to EWR 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.