tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 19:09 MSP
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 MSP → 23:27 DCA
    DL 2961 · Delta · 2h 26m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 31mSDF 17:55 to DCA 23:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.