tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Dulles via Minneapolis: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 19:09 MSP
    DL 5017 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 MSP → 23:25 IAD
    DL 4129 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 30m · 78% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 30mSDF 17:55 to IAD 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.