tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tampa via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 71%

  1. 12:30 JFK → 14:21 RDU
    DL 5028 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 51m · 76% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 46m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:07 RDU → 20:04 TPA
    DL 1275 · Delta · 1h 56m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 181 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 46m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 33mJFK 12:30 to TPA 20:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.