tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Washington via New York: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:10 MSN → 18:29 LGA
    DL 5033 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 19m · 69% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 LGA → 20:59 DCA
    DL 5724 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 50% on time, 10.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (10.9% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 50mMSN 15:10 to DCA 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.