tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Boston via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:10 MSN → 18:29 LGA
    DL 5033 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 19m · 69% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 LGA → 21:31 BOS
    DL 5850 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 60% on time, 18.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (18.1% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 21mMSN 15:10 to BOS 21:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.