tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Milwaukee via New York: arrives on time 41%

  1. 13:00 ORD → 16:37 JFK
    DL 5035 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 37m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 JFK → 19:24 MKE
    DL 4986 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 54m · 72% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (11.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 24mORD 13:00 to MKE 19:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.