tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:00 ORD → 16:37 JFK
    DL 5035 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 37m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:29 JFK → 19:25 BUF
    DL 5250 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 74% on time, 8.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (11.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (8.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 26mORD 13:00 to BUF 19:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.