tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:00 ORD → 16:37 JFK
    DL 5035 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 37m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:29 JFK → 20:08 PHX
    DL 798 · Delta · 5h 40m · 73% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (11.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 09mORD 13:00 to PHX 20:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.