tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Madison via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:37 CLT → 16:40 LGA
    DL 5046 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 03m · 69% on time, 13.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 LGA → 19:43 MSN
    DL 5853 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 53m · 63% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (13.6% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 06mCLT 14:37 to MSN 19:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.