tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Seattle via New York: arrives on time 43%

  1. 13:52 CLT → 16:00 JFK
    DL 5049 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 10m · 74% on time, 9.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 JFK → 20:19 SEA
    DL 740 · Delta · 6h 29m · 71% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (9.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip9h 27mCLT 13:52 to SEA 20:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.