tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:29 CVG → 19:51 DTW
    DL 5071 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 21m · 70% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 DTW → 21:48 PHX
    DL 2076 · Delta · 4h 04m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 19mCVG 18:29 to PHX 21:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.