tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Rochester via New York: arrives on time 48%

  1. 19:14 IAD → 21:00 JFK
    DL 5076 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 46m · 64% on time, 12.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 59m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:59 JFK → 00:53 ROC +1 day
    DL 5297 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 54m · 73% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 74 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 59m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (12.7% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 39mIAD 19:14 to ROC 00:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.