tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Francisco via Detroit: arrives on time 65%

  1. 07:15 JFK → 09:25 DTW
    DL 5080 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 87% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:15 DTW → 14:16 SFO
    DL 469 · Delta · 5h 01m · 70% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 125 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 50m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip10h 01mJFK 07:15 to SFO 14:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.