tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Rochester via Detroit: arrives on time 67%

  1. 07:15 JFK → 09:25 DTW
    DL 5080 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 08m · 87% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:20 DTW → 11:46 ROC
    DL 4120 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 26m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 31mJFK 07:15 to ROC 11:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.